Assessment of the Feasibility and Cost of Hepatitis C Elimination in Pakistan

Authors

Jagpreet Chhatwal, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Boston
Qiushi Chen, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Boston; Harold and Inge Marcus Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
Xiaojie Wang, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville
Turgay Ayer, H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
Yueran Zhuo, Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Boston
Naveed Z. Janjua, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Fasiha Kanwal, Houston Veterans Affairs Health Services Research and Development Center of Excellence, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas; Department of Medicine, Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

5-3-2019

Abstract

Importance: Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a global health problem. The World Health Assembly recently pledged to eliminate HCV by 2030. However, in Pakistan, a country with one of the highest prevalence rates, the feasibility and cost of HCV elimination are not known.

Objectives: To investigate whether and under what conditions HCV elimination is feasible in Pakistan and to estimate the cost of such elimination.

Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model study used a microsimulation model of the HCV epidemic in Pakistan from 2015 to 2030. Using Pakistan-specific variables, the model simulated the landscape of HCV in Pakistan and evaluated the minimum required screening and treatment rates needed to eliminate HCV in Pakistan. The study used simulated individuals chronically infected with HCV from 2015 to 2030. The analysis was performed in 2018.

Interventions: The status quo and 7 scenarios that can lead to HCV elimination in Pakistan by 2030, which were defined by different combinations of tests for screening, detection of viremia before treatment, and confirmation of treatment response.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Temporal trends in HCV infection prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years and total cost of HCV infection care under the status quo and scenarios that can eliminate HCV by 2030.

Results: Under the status quo, from 2015 to 2030, 1.44 million people are projected to die of HCV infection; 48% of deaths would be among people younger than 50 years. To achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan, HCV testing would need to be scaled up to at least 25 million people to diagnose 900 000 persons and treatment to 700 000 people per year. Compared with the status quo, the elimination scenario would avert 323 000 liver-related deaths and 13.0 million HCV-associated disability-adjusted life-years from 2015 to 2030. The elimination scenario was associated with cost savings of $2.6 billion from 2018 to 2030 with use of a point-of-care test for population-wide antibody screening and detection of viremia and treatment response.

Conclusions and Relevance: Substantial scale-up of HCV testing and treatment may be essential to eliminate HCV infection in Pakistan, and such a strategy may be associated with cost savings in the near future. Although HCV elimination in Pakistan may be ambitious, strategic planning and strong support from the government may aid in its elimination.

Recommended Citation

Chhatwal J, Chen Q, Wang X, et al. Assessment of the Feasibility and Cost of Hepatitis C Elimination in Pakistan. JAMA Netw Open. 2019;2(5):e193613. Published 2019 May 3. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.3613