Geography ETDs

Publication Date

Summer 7-30-2024

Abstract

This study examines the spatiotemporal distribution and determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever (RMSF) incidence in Arizona from 2006 to 2021. Utilizing climate variables, land cover types, and socio-economic indicators, we employed Negative Binomial Regression, Spatial autocorrelation, and Random Forest-based classification to identify key predictors and patterns of RMSF spread. Results indicate positive correlations between RMSF incidence and precipitation and shrub cover, while veterinary access, forest cover, and relative humidity show negative associations. Spatial analysis revealed significant case clustering, with limited veterinary access associated with higher RMSF incidence. A Random Forest-based predictive model was developed to identify potential tick-host interactions, facilitating targeted public health interventions. This research enhances understanding of RMSF dynamics in the southwestern US, emphasizing the need for integrated public health strategies. Future research should focus on improving diagnostic tools, investigating long-term health impacts, and exploring environmental changes' role in disease spread.

Degree Name

Geography

Department Name

Geography

Level of Degree

Masters

First Committee Member (Chair)

Yan Lin

Second Committee Member

Xi Gong

Third Committee Member

K. Maria D. Lane

Document Type

Thesis

Language

English

Keywords

Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever (RMSF), Geospatial Analysis, Tick-Host Interactions, Environmental Factors, Tick-borne Disease, Arizona

Available for download on Thursday, July 30, 2026

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