Economics ETDs

Mark O. Evans

Publication Date

3-21-1977

Abstract

The Southwest is a region under stress. The area is not only a major repository of energy and nonenergy fuels and minerals, but it also contains many of the nation's most scenic and semiprimitive areas. The potential environmental disruption of coal, uranium, and oil shale development is well-researched; but the indirect pressure of enlarged populations in remote areas, although less visible to the casual observer, could have environmental consequences as destructive as the direct capital investment. A multiregional input-output model of the Four Corners states, which interacts with a cohort-survival model, was constructed to forecast the economic and demographic implications of alternative national and regional scenarios. The purpose of designing the input-output model was to assist regional planners in preparing for contingencies beyond their control, and, where regional control of events is possible, to impart the choices available to the citizenry in a consistent and comprehensive manner. The model incorporated a residual Rest-of-the-United States region, which enabled consistent accounting for the regional implications of alternative federal energy policies. Alternative national forecasts were obtained from an outside source, and were used as final demand and production control totals. Estimation of trade coefficients entailed employment of both primary and secondary data. This dissertation devises and implements a questionnaire approach to estimating trade coefficients which does not suffer from some of the methodological shortcomings of more prevalent practices (e.g., linear programming). This questionnaire approach may make it possible to satisfactorily implement large-scale multiregional models with the modest budgets available to regional planning authorities. To illustrate several properties of the model, three scenarios were considered. One scenario assumed that there would be no concerted national effort toward energy independence, while the other two scenarios assumed that energy independence would be pursued. Both latter cases assumed alternative Southwestern responses to the national course of events, and that mineral extraction (i.e., coal, uranium, and shale) would be accelerated. In one of the cases, it was assumed that coal mined within the Southwest is exported, to a large extent, from the region, while the other scenario assumed that growth in coal-fired electricity generation and coal gasification were also hastened within the Southwest. The pursued scenarios were reflected in the model by parametrically altering both trade coefficients and the regional allocation of construction and investment final demand control totals. Selective results for two subregions of New Mexico were given to illustrate the importance of national policy decisions and interregional feedback. Several suggestions are presented which can lead to improvement of the model and to its further incorporation into the planning process. It is suggested that estimation of econometric relationships linking the model's endogenous variables to whatever is of interest to the planner would be useful for contingency planning. Also, it is essential that evaluations be made to determine the extent to which the policy instruments available to regional governments can effectively alter the structural relationships of their respective regions.

Degree Name

Economics

Level of Degree

Doctoral

Department Name

Department of Economics

First Committee Member (Chair)

Franklin Lee Brown, Jr.

Second Committee Member

Allen V. Kneese

Third Committee Member

Alfred Leroy Parker

Fourth Committee Member

Lee Berkey Zink

Project Sponsors

The University of New Mexico, Resources for the Future, Inc., and the Four Corners Regional Commission

Language

English

Document Type

Dissertation

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