Kamalesh Panthi

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Investment decisions have to be made when there is little information about the scope of the project. New projects have to depend on historical evidences and experiences gained from previous projects of similar nature. However, such projects lack historical data and even if such data are available, they cannot be applied owing to the very unique nature of the projects and their locations. In such circumstances, subjective judgments of the experts based on their experience are very useful inputs for the success of any projects. In risk analysis, determining a numerical value to such judgments without distorting the subjective judgments is very essential. An approach is taken in this study that will prioritize the existing risks and assign a cost value to all the major risks through systematic risk analysis. The proposed methodology will be demonstrated through its application to a case study of Nyadi Hydropower Project in Nepal.