Qiao Liang

Publication Date



The continuing avian influenza (AI) out break that began in late 2003 and early 2004 has been disastrous for the poultry industry worldwide. It has resulted in severe socio-economic damage, and it has raised serious concerns for general public health. In this research, we use mathematics to analyze transmission dynamics of AI among poultry. We use a status-based approach to construct systems of differential equations to describe virus transmission dynamics. We develop theoretical means to eradicate the spread of the disease, and we calculate the size of healthy and infected populations during an AI outbreak, and the final population size when the disease is eliminated. We study the dynamics when vaccination is absent, and when vaccination is used. For the latter case, we investigate different scenarios, including when the circulating virus consists of only one strain, and when multiple strains are present. Finally, we assume there exists a mutation which can create a non-existing strain from an existing strain and we analyze such dynamics using numerical simulation. The measures and information provided by this research can be used as references to develop disease control strategies.

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Department Name

Mathematics & Statistics

First Committee Member (Chair)

Deborah Sulsky

Second Committee Member

Pedro Embid

Third Committee Member

Stanly Steinberg



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