Economics ETDs

Publication Date

7-21-1975

Abstract

The practical problems inherent in attempting to test a theory of individual recreational behavior scientifically with the use of aggregated data are investigated. Due to the typical high cost of obtaining data concerning individual, decision making units, readily available aggregated data are normally used. The primary thrust of this research is an examination of the adequacy of such aggregated data for scientifically testing hypotheses deducible from a theory of individual recreational choice. As the adequacy of data cannot be examined in isolation, a general theoretical model of individual recreational behavior is developed. It is demonstrated that the characteristics approach to demand adequately serves as a theoretical framework of an individual's recreational choices. In addition, this approach includes physical attributes of recreational sites as relevant parameters in the decision making process. Total visitors and total visitor days at a recreational site are two aggregate forms of concepts inherent in the theory developed. The measurement of these variables at the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area is presented as a case study that exemplifies the extent of the efforts necessary in giving empirical interpretation to concepts. As published data of similar concepts at this site are as much as twenty-five percent inaccurate, alternative estimation procedures are utilized. Published data, corrected for estimated error, are used in conjunction with information obtained from an extensive survey of recreational visitors to the area. Estimates are obtained and error bounds examined. The empirical methodology employed can be described as an elaborate, logical construction. Empirical evidence is joined with observational premises in all phases of estimation. Thus, the final results depend as much on assumption as on empirical technique. If a disconfirmation occurs in testing, it may be the result of the theory or of the empirical process. The complexity of the empirical structure that must be created in order to employ aggregated data in the testing process produces a situation in which it is extremely difficult to determine a probable source of a disconfirmation, thereby making it difficult to obtain useful information from the procedures. It is therefore concluded that attempts to test a theory of individual recreational choice scientifically with aggregated data must be viewed with skepticism. An experimental micro approach to scientific testing may produce qualitatively superior results that justify additional costs.

Degree Name

Economics

Level of Degree

Doctoral

Department Name

Department of Economics

First Committee Member (Chair)

Franklin Lee Brown, Jr.

Second Committee Member

Shaul Ben-David

Third Committee Member

David Boyce Hamilton Jr.

Language

English

Document Type

Dissertation

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