Document Type



Purpose To achieve the health promotions and disease prevention objectives for American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) associated with Healthy People 2000, the Indian Health Service focused efforts on developing analytic tools to improve the forecasting and estimation of the effects of its health programs and interventions. This project used existing IHS hospitalization data as well as data derived from the 1980 and 1990 censuses to project the number of patients who will be hospitalized for alcohol-related illnesses up to the year 2005. Methods A long-term projection method was developed in this project. This methodology is designed to assist IHS planners in estimating the levels of health problems in the future. The health problems selected for this study was alcoholism and alcohol abuse. Results Projects for the number of inpatient hospitalizations associated with alcohol abuse revealed 2 major trends: 1) the problem of alcohol is decreasing but not fast enough. A 20 percent decrease in hospitalizations is projected from 1990-2005. While that is a heartening improvement, this rate suggests that IHS will fail to meet its objectives of 50% decrease for the year 2000. The alcohol abuse problem may be worsening for women aged 55-74. Special attention should be paid to determine the validity of this projection. If the projection is confirmed, interventions appropriate for women of this age group should be implemented. Conclusion As a follow-up to this project, IHS should consider using long term projection methodology to model and estimate the results of different interventions designed to decrease alcohol abuse.

Publication Date



Indian Health Service, Staff Office of Planning, Evaluation and Research, Rockville, MD 20857 (SSI-22).