Individual, Family, and Community Education ETDs

Publication Date

Fall 10-30-2017


This study will determine the degree to which first grade literacy tests predict third grade reading performance in order to judge their value as "early warning systems" for reading skills. Reading skills are fundamental to many academic outcomes, so having an early sense of how students are reading is critical for schools. The first grade reading tests being compared are the Developmental Reading Assessment-Second Edition (DRA2) and the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills – Next (DIBELS Next). This study will employ two datasets, one with DIBELS Next scores (N=5,456) and one with DRA2 scores (N=2,209). Logistic regression is used to judge the predictability, and all logistic regression models are generated with the Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) version 20. The dependent variable is operationalized to be scoring proficient or not proficient on the New Mexico third grade English language arts/reading Standards Based Assessment (SBA). The independent variable is the composite score on the early literacy assessment. Covariates are demographic characteristics (i.e., gender, racial group, English language learner status and economic disadvantaged status). For both models, the beginning-of-year composite score had a significant overall effect in predicting student proficiency on the SBA. The DRA2 model had higher percentages of sensitivity, and positive and negative predicted values compared to the DIBELS Next. Conversely, the DIBELS Next had higher false positive and negative rates than the DRA2.


early literacy assessments, logistic regression, DIBELS Next, DRA2

Document Type




Degree Name

Educational Psychology

Level of Degree


Department Name

Individual, Family, and Community Education

First Committee Member (Chair)

Jay Parkes

Second Committee Member

Terri Flowerday

Third Committee Member

Jan Armstrong

Fourth Committee Member

Thomas Dauphinee

Fifth Committee Member

Cindy Gregory