Economics ETDs

Publication Date

5-7-1975

Abstract

Three aspects of static input-output analysis were investigated: (1) the acceptability of its sectoral (65 order) accuracy in projecting changes in intermediate outputs when using the actual vector of final demands for the year concerned; (2) the advisability of extrapolating a continuation of the rate of change in technical coeffi­cients where those shifts had been dramatic between 1947 and 1958; (3) the workability of a variant of a non-homogeneous linear system where the marginal coefficients were derived from the 1947 and 1958 tables.

It was found that in any given projected year about one-third of the sectoral projections had to be rejected as totally unacceptable for research purposes. For the three projected years from 1958 to 1961, 1963, 1966 only about half qualified under loose criterions as “perhaps acceptable” for all three years. It was concluded that use of this model for projections or impact analysis is simply not warranted except for the crudest order of estimates. This is especially true if the proposed use is overly sensitive to errors made in particular sectors.

The two simple ways for allowing changes in technical coefficients or the use of marginal coefficients were also rejected as yielding worse results than even the constant returns to scale model.

The reader should be cautioned that no investigation was made of dynamic models or other more sophisticated models allowing for adjustments in coefficients.

Degree Name

Economics

Level of Degree

Doctoral

Department Name

Department of Economics

First Committee Member (Chair)

Paul Jonas

Second Committee Member

David Boyce Hamilton Jr.

Third Committee Member

William Dietrich Schulze

Language

English

Document Type

Dissertation

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